10,000 USDT, recommendations followed
A fictional client hands the site 10,000 USDT on January 1, 2026 and applies the reallocation the site proposes every fifteen days, each decision inheriting the one before it. The same strategy engine as the live site, the same model, the same prompt — with market data cut off at each date.
A backtest — and what makes this one unusual
Every input stops at the decision date: candles, long-term readings, macro series and press are all bounded, and the context opens with an explicit "as of" notice. Verified on the January 1 decision — the last candle sent was dated that same evening, Bitcoin appears at its price of the day, and no later date occurs anywhere in the context.
The model could not know what followed either. Its training stops well before the simulated period, so these months did not exist when it was built, and it has no network access or tools. Its behaviour agrees: it stayed 60% invested a fortnight before the January crash and only cut exposure afterwards — not what a model with foresight would do.
What remains true regardless: this is one market sequence, and a falling one, so it says nothing about how the same rules behave in a rising market. The press articles were qualified after the fact, which is a mild contamination of that one input. And no account exists, no order was placed, no money moved.
The red curve is the fund; the dashed curves are what the same 10,000 would have done with no analysis at all — held in Bitcoin, spread evenly across the assets, or simply never invested. That last one is the flat line, and in a falling market it is the hardest to beat. Hover the chart for exact values on any date, and scroll to zoom. Trading fees of 0.1% per order are deducted from the fund and from it alone.
| Same window, same capital | Value | Return | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| The fund — proposals followed every 15 days | 9,281 | -7.2% | — |
| Buy and hold Bitcoin — the return with no analysis at all | 8,891 | -11.1% | +3.9 pt |
| Equal-weight basket, bought once and never touched | 7,661 | -23.4% | +16.2 pt |
| Cash — never invest at all | 9,992 | -0.1% | -7.1 pt |
A return on its own means nothing. Beating cash in a falling market can be pure abstention; beating buy-and-hold Bitcoin is the only figure that says the analysis produced something. The cash reference has its own page, on its own scale — it is the line this fund has to clear.
Every decision, and why
These are the proposals as they were stored — the model's own title, reading and per-line reasoning, with the prices that were in front of it. Nothing here is rewritten after the fact.
July 30, 2026 — 9,042.48 USDT
Trim BTC, add to TRX, keep large USDC buffer
USDC 67.8%
TRX 25.2%
BTC 7.0%
The portfolio currently holds crypto exposure only in Bitcoin (13.9%) and TRON (18.2%), with two-thirds of the value parked in USDC. Over the past six months TRON is the only one of the two crypto lines to have gained ground (+14.7%), while Bitcoin has lost -17.7% and remains fully correlated with the broader market's negative drift. This proposal shifts half of the Bitcoin position into TRON, which shows both the stronger multi-month trend and a markedly lower correlation to Bitcoin (0.43) than any other line in the list. The USDC buffer is left untouched, since the weighted score is neutral and recent headlines on Bitcoin and the broader market carry a negative tone, arguing against redeploying cash into volatile assets right now. All other listed assets are left at zero: their correlation to Bitcoin exceeds 0.80 in most cases, meaning adding them would not meaningfully diversify the crypto sleeve.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Halving the position reduces exposure to a line showing -17.2% over 90 days and -17.7% over 180 days, amid negative recent headlines and full correlation with the broader crypto downtrend.
- ETH — No current holding; its 0.92 correlation to Bitcoin and negative 90/180-day drift offer little diversification benefit despite a short-term ACHAT score.
- SOL — No current holding; -29.4% over 180 days and 0.89 correlation to Bitcoin argue against adding this line.
- BNB — Strong short-term score (58.3) is offset by -24.2% over 180 days and 0.85 correlation to Bitcoin, which limits diversification value.
- XRP — 180-day drift of -34.3% and 0.90 correlation to Bitcoin make this an unattractive addition despite positive regulatory news.
- DOGE — Weakest recent momentum among majors (-35.0% over 90 days) and 0.81 correlation to Bitcoin argue against inclusion.
- ADA — Despite a strong short-term score, the 180-day drift of -42.2% and 0.80 correlation to Bitcoin outweigh the recent technical signal.
- TRX — TRON shows the best 180-day drift in the table (+14.7%), the strongest trend-channel reading (56%), and the lowest correlation to Bitcoin (0.43) among positive performers, supporting an increased weight funded by trimming Bitcoin.
- AVAX — 180-day drift of -36.4% and negative short-term score do not support adding this line.
- LINK — Strong short-term score is undermined by -15.4% over 180 days and a 0.89 correlation to Bitcoin, limiting diversification value.
- DOT — Worst performer on the 180-day horizon (-50.4%); despite a lower correlation to Bitcoin (0.65), the deteriorating trend argues against inclusion.
- LTC — -23.4% over 180 days and 0.82 correlation to Bitcoin, plus a neutral short-term score, do not support adding this line.
- USDC — The cash buffer is left unchanged, given the neutral weighted portfolio score and generally negative recent news tone across major crypto assets.
July 15, 2026 — 9,020.80 USDT
Trim TRON Concentration, Raise Cash Buffer, Modest BTC Add
USDC 68.0%
TRX 18.0%
BTC 14.0%
The portfolio is dominated by TRX at 36.1% of value, carrying a -57.5 (VENTE_FORTE) short-term score that pulls the weighted portfolio score to -20.2. Over 180 days TRX is nonetheless the only crypto line that stayed positive (+4.8%) and its correlation to BTC (0.41) is the lowest of the group, so a full exit would discard a genuinely differentiated long-term behavior on the basis of an 8-day signal. The proposal halves TRX's weight to reduce single-line concentration while keeping a meaningful stake that reflects its multi-month resilience. BTC's weight is raised only modestly given mixed signals: positive short-term news flow (Japan reclassification, inflation-driven rally) against a poor 180-day drift (-32.2%). The rest of the proceeds moves into USDC, raising the defensive buffer given that no other listed asset shows both a favorable score and low correlation to BTC.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Weight raised from 9.9% to about 14%; short-term score is neutral (5.6) and recent news flow is positive, but the poor 180-day drift (-32.2%) argues against a larger increase.
- ETH — No current holding; correlation to BTC (0.92) is high enough that adding it would not diversify the reduced BTC/TRX/USDC mix.
- SOL — No current holding; 180-day drift is deeply negative (-46.7%) and correlation to BTC (0.89) offers little diversification value.
- BNB — No current holding; correlation to BTC (0.85) exceeds the diversification threshold and the 180-day trend remains weak (-38.1%).
- XRP — No current holding; despite recent positive news, the 180-day drift (-46.2%) and 0.87 correlation to BTC limit its case for inclusion.
- DOGE — No current holding; 180-day drift is among the weakest (-46.4%) with no offsetting diversification benefit.
- ADA — No current holding; technical score is a strong sell (-24.5) and the 180-day drift (-58.3%) is one of the worst in the set.
- TRX — Weight cut from 36.1% to about 18% to reduce concentration and reflect the -57.5 (VENTE_FORTE) short-term score, while retaining exposure given its best-in-class 180-day drift (+4.8%) and low 0.41 correlation to BTC.
- AVAX — No current holding; 180-day drift (-50.7%) and 0.81 correlation to BTC make it unattractive relative to the defensive USDC allocation.
- LINK — No current holding; despite a mildly positive short-term score, correlation to BTC (0.89) is above the diversification threshold.
- DOT — No current holding; it shows the worst 180-day drift of the set (-60.0%) and a strong sell score (-56.1), despite a comparatively lower 0.64 correlation to BTC.
- LTC — No current holding; 180-day drift (-39.9%) and 0.82 correlation to BTC offer no clear advantage over the proposed cash buffer.
- USDC — Weight raised from 54.0% to about 68% as a defensive counterweight to the overall -20.2 (VENTE) weighted score and the absence of any listed asset combining a favorable score with low BTC correlation.
June 30, 2026 — 8,847.02 USDT
Trim BTC/ETH, hold TRX, raise USDC cushion
USDC 55.1%
TRX 35.7%
BTC 9.2%
The portfolio currently splits risk across BTC, ETH, TRX and USDC, but BTC and ETH both carry strong sell signals (-36.5 and -33.1) alongside steep multi-month declines, while ETH's 0.92 correlation to BTC means holding both barely diversifies anything. TRX, despite a negative short-term score, is the only major line with a positive 180-day return and the lowest correlation to BTC, arguing for keeping it rather than cutting it to match the short-term signal. This reallocation halves the BTC position and closes the ETH line, routing the proceeds into USDC to reduce directional exposure while markets show broad negative sentiment (record ETF outflows, multi-asset drawdowns). No new lines are opened: assets like SOL or DOT show short-term buy scores but their 180-day drifts (-41.9% and -58.9%) offer no confirmation from the longer window.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Halving the BTC position reflects its strong sell score (-36.5) and 180-day drawdown of -34.0%, while retaining partial exposure to the market's reference asset.
- ETH — ETH shows the weakest technical score among held assets (-33.1) and the steepest 180-day decline (-47.7%), and its 0.92 correlation to BTC means holding both offers little diversification benefit.
- SOL — A positive short-term score (22.1) is not confirmed by the 180-day drift (-41.9%) and 0.89 correlation to BTC, so no new position is opened in this defensive reallocation.
- BNB — Strong sell score (-49.9) combined with a 0.85 correlation to BTC argues against initiating a position now.
- XRP — Neutral short-term score does not offset a -44.7% 180-day drift and 0.88 correlation to BTC, so no allocation is made.
- DOGE — Weak 180-day performance (-43.2%) and no current holding argue for staying out for now.
- ADA — ADA shows the worst 180-day performance of the set (-59.5%) alongside a strong sell score, so it remains excluded.
- TRX — TRX is the only major holding with a positive 180-day return (+9.8%) and the lowest correlation to BTC (0.39), which supports keeping the position despite a negative short-term score.
- AVAX — A -51.9% 180-day drift and 0.81 correlation to BTC do not support opening a position in this defensive shift.
- LINK — A strong sell signal (-51.8) and 0.89 correlation to BTC keep this asset outside the reallocation.
- DOT — Despite a positive short-term score (26.0), the -58.9% 180-day drift is not confirmed and no position is initiated.
- LTC — Strong sell score (-56.8) and 0.81 correlation to BTC argue against adding this line.
- USDC — Proceeds from trimming BTC and closing ETH are routed here, raising the stable allocation to roughly 55% of the portfolio amid broadly negative technical and news signals across risk assets.
June 15, 2026 — 9,168.94 USDT
Rebalancing toward TRX resilience and a measured BTC/ETH tilt
USDC 40.0%
TRX 35.0%
BTC 20.0%
ETH 5.0%
The current portfolio holds 57.4% in USDC, 28.6% in TRX and 14.1% in BTC, with all other lines at zero. Over 180 days TRX is the only position that gained value (+13.9%) while BTC lost 23.1% and every other listed altcoin lost between 26% and 51%. This proposal reduces the idle cash buffer modestly and redistributes part of it toward TRX, whose low correlation to BTC (0.39) makes it a genuine diversifier, and toward BTC itself, supported by short-term positive news flow. A small ETH position is added to reflect its strong short-term technical signal, but it is kept limited because ETH's correlation to BTC (0.92) means it largely duplicates existing BTC risk rather than diversifying it.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Positive short-term news flow (Armstrong, Iran ceasefire, Strategy's $100M buy) supports a moderate increase, but the 180-day drawdown of -23.1% and low channel position (15%) argue against a large commitment.
- ETH — Strong short-term technical signal (58.9, ACHAT_FORT) and ETF-related news justify a small opportunistic position, kept limited given the 0.92 correlation to BTC and a -36.6% 180-day drift.
- SOL — Despite a short-term ACHAT signal, 180-day drift of -40.0% and 0.91 correlation to BTC mean this line would mostly duplicate BTC exposure without diversification benefit.
- BNB — Neutral short-term score and 0.85 correlation to BTC combined with -26.7% over 180 days do not support opening this line.
- XRP — Strong short-term signal (58, ACHAT_FORT) is offset by -33.5% over 180 days and 0.88 correlation to BTC, limiting its diversification value.
- DOGE — Neutral short-term score with -30.2% over 180 days; correlation to BTC (0.79) is the lowest among the excluded lines but still not a clear diversifier.
- ADA — Weakest 180-day performer of the set (-51.4%) with 0.81 correlation to BTC, offering neither resilience nor diversification.
- TRX — Best 180-day performer (+13.9%) with the lowest correlation to BTC (0.39) in the set, making an increased allocation consistent with the long-term resilience data despite a negative short-term score.
- AVAX — Weak long-term performance (-42.4% over 180 days) and 0.83 correlation to BTC do not support an allocation.
- LINK — Neutral short-term score, -32.4% over 180 days, and 0.89 correlation to BTC limit its usefulness as a distinct position.
- DOT — Lower correlation to BTC (0.66) is notable, but the steep -44.3% 180-day drift outweighs this for now.
- LTC — -39.8% over 180 days and 0.82 correlation to BTC do not justify opening this line.
- USDC — Cash weight is reduced from 57.4% to about 40% of the portfolio to fund the increased TRX, BTC and small ETH positions, while still retaining a substantial buffer given the neutral weighted score (-4.8).
May 31, 2026 — 9,574.75 USDT
Trim TRX concentration, add cash buffer, hold weak altcoins at zero
USDC 55.0%
TRX 30.0%
BTC 15.0%
The portfolio currently rests on three lines only: TRX at 45.2%, USDC at 38.0% and BTC at 16.8%, while every other listed altcoin is held at zero. TRX has been the best six-month performer (+25.1%) and shows the lowest correlation to BTC (0.37) of the whole set, which argues for keeping a meaningful position rather than dumping it. Its near-half weight, however, is a concentration risk on its own regardless of quality, so trimming it toward roughly 30% while redirecting the proceeds mostly into USDC and modestly reducing BTC produces a less lopsided structure without adding any of the remaining altcoins, almost all of which carry VENTE_FORTE short-term scores, sharply negative 180-day drifts and correlations to BTC above 0.80. The net effect is a larger stable buffer (about 55%), a reduced but still dominant TRX line (about 30%), and a slightly smaller BTC line (about 15%), at unchanged total value.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Trimming BTC from 16.8% to about 15% reflects the -19.3% six-month drift and clearly negative recent headlines, even though the eight-day score is only mildly negative (-8.8); freed value moves to a stable buffer rather than staying in a directional bet.
- ETH — Score -55.7 (VENTE_FORTE), -33.0% over 180 days and 0.92 correlation to BTC leave neither favorable momentum nor diversification value to justify entry.
- SOL — Score -55.3 (VENTE_FORTE) with a -40.6% six-month drift and 0.89 correlation to BTC offer no basis for allocation.
- BNB — Despite a neutral short-term score and positive 30/90-day drifts, the 180-day drift is -18.9% and correlation to BTC is 0.83, so it would largely duplicate existing BTC exposure.
- XRP — Score -55.4 (VENTE_FORTE), -38.1% over 180 days and 0.87 correlation to BTC argue against entry.
- DOGE — Score -55.1 (VENTE_FORTE) and a -31.1% six-month drift outweigh its comparatively lower 0.78 correlation to BTC.
- ADA — Score -55.6 (VENTE_FORTE), the second-worst 180-day drift (-45.6%) and 0.82 correlation to BTC leave no case for allocation.
- TRX — TRX shows the strongest six-month performance (+25.1%) and the lowest correlation to BTC (0.37) in the set, but its 45.2% weight is an outsized single-asset exposure; reducing it to roughly 30% keeps a meaningful position in the best-resisting asset while lowering concentration risk.
- AVAX — Score -54.9 (VENTE_FORTE), -34.0% over 180 days and 0.84 correlation to BTC do not support entry.
- LINK — Score -55.2 (VENTE_FORTE), -32.1% over 180 days and 0.89 correlation to BTC leave little diversification benefit.
- DOT — Despite the lowest correlation to BTC among the sell-rated altcoins (0.65), DOT shows the worst 180-day drift of the whole set (-47.2%) and a VENTE_FORTE score, which outweighs the correlation argument.
- LTC — Score -55.9 (VENTE_FORTE), -37.1% over 180 days and 0.80 correlation to BTC give no reason to add this line.
- USDC — Raising the stable-asset share from 38.0% to about 55% absorbs the proceeds from trimming BTC and TRX; with nearly every other listed altcoin flashing VENTE_FORTE scores and steep negative six-month drifts, and USDC showing a -0.31 correlation to BTC, this line currently offers the most predictable buffer.
May 16, 2026 — 9,723.04 USDT
Trim cash buffer to reinforce the strongest long-term performer (TRX)
TRX 45.1%
USDC 37.4%
BTC 17.5%
TRON is the only asset in the current holdings with an active buy signal (score 38.8) and it dominates the 30/90/180-day drift table among all tracked assets, including Bitcoin. A modest transfer from the USDC cash buffer toward TRX would increase exposure to the line that has actually held up over the past six months, while Bitcoin, despite favorable regulatory headlines, still shows a negative short-term score and a -15.3% six-month drift. The stablecoin position is reduced but not eliminated, preserving a buffer given the broadly negative short-term news flow across ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE. No new lines are introduced; the reallocation stays within the three currently funded positions (BTC, TRX, USDC).
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Short-term score remains negative (-7.7) despite supportive regulatory headlines, and the 180-day drift (-15.3%) trails TRX by a wide margin; the position is left unchanged rather than increased or cut.
- ETH — No holding currently; six-month drift is -28.1% and correlation to BTC is 0.92, offering little diversification if added.
- SOL — No holding currently; 180-day drift -33.9% and correlation to BTC 0.88 make it a weak diversification candidate.
- BNB — No holding currently; negative technical score and 0.87 correlation to BTC limit its usefulness for diversification.
- XRP — No holding currently; 180-day drift -34.7% despite short-term positive news, correlation to BTC 0.86.
- DOGE — No holding currently; volatile short-term moves but 180-day drift -28.1% and no current position to adjust.
- ADA — No holding currently; 180-day drift -45.3%, one of the weakest long-term performers tracked.
- TRX — Best 30/90/180-day performer among all tracked assets (+8.6%/+26.6%/+21.7%) with an active buy signal (38.8) and low 0.38 correlation to BTC; weight increases from 36.9% to roughly 45.1%, funded entirely by trimming the USDC buffer.
- AVAX — No holding currently; 180-day drift -36.1% and correlation to BTC 0.82 offer limited diversification value.
- LINK — No holding currently; 180-day drift -27.1% and correlation to BTC 0.87.
- DOT — No holding currently; weakest 180-day performer tracked (-52.4%), no basis to initiate a position.
- LTC — No holding currently; 180-day drift -38.5% with no active technical signal to justify entry.
- USDC — Roughly 800 USDT worth is redeployed into TRX, reducing the cash buffer from 45.6% to about 37.4% of the portfolio while still preserving a meaningful reserve amid mixed short-term market signals.
May 1, 2026 — 9,440.49 USDT
Rebalancing from cash toward TRX and BTC based on 180-day resilience
USDC 47.0%
TRX 35.0%
BTC 18.0%
The current portfolio holds 63.8% in USDC, 27.9% in TRX and 8.3% in BTC, with every other listed asset at zero. This reallocation trims the USDC buffer to roughly 47% and redirects the difference toward TRX, the only asset with a positive 180-day drift (+9.7%) and the lowest correlation to BTC (0.37), and toward BTC, supported by a short-term ACHAT score (27.7) and positive reserve-related news flow. No other altcoin is added because each combines a negative 180-day trend with a correlation above 0.79 to BTC, offering little real diversification. The result lifts TRX's weight to about 35% and BTC's to about 18%, while a sizable cash cushion is kept given the neutral overall weighted score (7.1).
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Short-term ACHAT score (27.7) with +14.9% over 30 days and positive reserve-related news support a moderate increase from 8.3% to about 18% of the portfolio, kept below TRX's weight given BTC's -29.2% 180-day drift.
- ETH — VENTE score (-24.2), 180-day drift of -41.2% and correlation to BTC of 0.92 offer neither a technical case nor real diversification.
- SOL — VENTE score (-25.3), worst-in-class 90-day drift (-20.7%) and 0.89 correlation to BTC argue against opening a position.
- BNB — VENTE score (-48) and -43.2% over 180 days, with 0.85 correlation to BTC, do not support an allocation.
- XRP — Neutral short-term score but -45.2% over 180 days and 0.86 correlation to BTC leave no diversification case.
- DOGE — Correlation to BTC is comparatively low (0.79), but the -41.8% 180-day drift keeps it out of the long-term allocation.
- ADA — 180-day drift of -59.4% and 0.82 correlation to BTC give no basis for an allocation despite a neutral short-term score.
- TRX — Best 180-day performer (+9.7%), highest channel adherence (90%) and lowest correlation to BTC (0.37) in the table; weight raised from 27.9% to about 35% to follow the multi-month reading.
- AVAX — VENTE_FORTE score (-55.9) and -51.7% over 180 days, with 0.82 correlation to BTC, argue against a position.
- LINK — VENTE_FORTE score (-56.7) and -48.2% over 180 days, with 0.87 correlation to BTC, do not support an allocation.
- DOT — Weakest 180-day performer in the table (-59.7%) despite the lowest correlation to BTC among alts (0.64); the drift alone rules out an allocation.
- LTC — Short-term ACHAT score (25.5) is not followed here because the 180-day drift (-44.3%) and 0.74 correlation to BTC dominate the long-term reading.
- USDC — Cash weight is trimmed from 63.8% to about 47% to fund the increased TRX and BTC exposure, while still keeping a meaningful buffer given the neutral weighted score (7.1).
April 16, 2026 — 9,408.99 USDT
Trim BTC concentration risk, favor TRX's multi-month resilience, hold cash buffer
USDC 64.0%
TRX 28.0%
BTC 8.0%
The portfolio currently sits at 16.1% Bitcoin, 24.3% TRON and 59.6% USDC, with a neutral weighted score (15.6). Bitcoin shows a strong short-term technical signal (55.8, ACHAT_FORT) but a deeply negative multi-month drift (-21.3% over 90 days, -29.9% over 180 days) and is by definition fully correlated with itself and highly correlated with nearly every other listed asset, so its weight adds concentrated market-wide exposure rather than diversification. TRON is the only risk asset in the book showing a consistently positive drift across 30/90/180 days and a comparatively low correlation to Bitcoin (0.43), which is the profile the multi-month table flags as the most resilient. This proposal trims Bitcoin modestly, redirects part of the proceeds into TRON, and slightly increases the cash buffer in USDC, without introducing any new altcoin lines despite their short-term ACHAT_FORT scores, since those signals conflict with a long-run downtrend and high correlation to Bitcoin. The result keeps the total value unchanged and leaves the portfolio less dependent on a single short-window signal.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Bitcoin's strong 8-day technical score (55.8) contrasts with a -21.3%/-29.9% drift over 90/180 days and near-total correlation with the rest of the book; trimming from 16.1% to about 8% reduces reliance on a single, highly correlated line.
- ETH — No current holding; despite an ACHAT_FORT short-term score, 180-day drift is -39.6% and correlation to BTC is 0.92, offering little diversification if added.
- SOL — No current holding; 180-day drift of -52.5% and 0.89 correlation to BTC argue against adding exposure despite the short-term ACHAT signal.
- BNB — No current holding; 180-day drift of -41.8% outweighs the short-term ACHAT_FORT reading for a multi-month allocation decision.
- XRP — No current holding; despite bullish news flow and a 58 score, 180-day drift is -38.4% with 0.87 correlation to BTC, limiting diversification value.
- DOGE — No current holding; 180-day drift of -47.7% and 0.80 correlation to BTC do not support adding a new line here.
- ADA — No current holding; ADA shows the weakest 180-day drift of the group (-59.2%), consistent with leaving it out of the allocation.
- TRX — TRON is the only listed asset with a positive drift across 30/90/180 days and a low 0.43 correlation to BTC; raising its weight from 24.3% to about 28% aligns the allocation with the multi-month evidence.
- AVAX — No current holding; 180-day drift of -51.9% and 0.80 correlation to BTC leave it without a long-term case despite the short-term ACHAT_FORT score.
- LINK — No current holding; 180-day drift of -43.0% and 0.86 correlation to BTC argue against inclusion.
- DOT — No current holding; despite a strong 24h move and 58.5 score, 180-day drift of -54.7% is among the weakest in the set.
- LTC — No current holding; 180-day drift of -38.5% does not offset the short-term technical reading for a months-long allocation.
- USDC — Raising the cash buffer from 59.6% to about 64% funds the trim in Bitcoin and preserves optionality given the broadly negative multi-month drift across most risk assets.
April 1, 2026 — 9,200.39 USDT
Trim weak-signal BNB and modestly reduce BTC exposure toward cash and TRX
USDC 61.0%
TRX 24.0%
BTC 15.0%
The portfolio already carries a large cash buffer (55.5% USDC) alongside BTC (19.3%), TRX (21.8%) and a small BNB line (3.3%). BNB shows a clear sell signal (-20.6) and has underperformed over 90 and 180 days, while BTC faces fresh negative-sentiment headlines and a steep 44% six-month drawdown despite a neutral short-term score. This reallocation liquidates BNB entirely, trims BTC moderately, and redirects the freed capital mostly into USDC with a smaller top-up to TRX, which has shown comparatively strong resilience and low correlation to BTC. All other lines, currently at zero, remain unheld given weak or negative technical scores and high correlation to BTC that would limit real diversification. The overall effect is a lower-risk, more defensive stance without adding new assets or external funds.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Trimmed from 19.3% toward roughly 15% of the portfolio given the -8 sentiment headline on quantum risk and a -44.3% six-month drift, while keeping a core position since the technical score remains neutral (5.4).
- ETH — No current holding; 0.91 correlation to BTC and a -52.6% six-month drift offer little diversification or resilience case for entry.
- SOL — Sell signal (-36.9) and the weakest 180-day drift among widely-held names (-65.1%) argue against entry.
- BNB — Sell signal (-20.6) combined with a -29.3% 90-day and -48.6% 180-day drift; proceeds are redirected to USDC and TRX.
- XRP — Sell signal (-23.8) and 0.87 correlation to BTC, which limits diversification benefit if added.
- DOGE — Correlation to BTC sits right at the 0.80 threshold and 180-day drift is -64.3%, offering no clear case for entry.
- ADA — Weakest 180-day performance in the table (-71.3%) and 0.83 correlation to BTC; not reintroduced.
- TRX — Best relative long-term resilience among risk assets (+9.9% 90d, -7.7% 180d) and lowest correlation to BTC (0.45), receiving a modest top-up funded by the BTC trim and BNB sale.
- AVAX — Weak long-term drift (-70.8% 180d) despite a moderate correlation (0.78); no entry case given the negative trend.
- LINK — 0.86 correlation to BTC and a -60.3% 180-day drift limit both diversification and resilience arguments.
- DOT — Sell signal (-25.3) and the sharpest 30-day decline (-16.8%) among all listed assets argue against entry.
- LTC — Short-term buy signal (24.6) contrasts with a -55.4% 180-day drift; per the priority given to the multi-month view, no position is opened.
- USDC — Increased from 55.5% to roughly 61% of the portfolio, consistent with USDC being the best-resisting asset over 180 days and funded by the BTC trim and part of the BNB sale.
March 17, 2026 — 9,323.08 USDT
Trim weak BNB exposure, reinforce cash buffer and resilient TRX
USDC 54.8%
TRX 20.9%
BTC 20.7%
BNB 3.6%
The current portfolio carries three crypto lines (BTC, BNB, TRX) alongside a large USDC cushion (48.4%). BNB shows the weakest long-term resistance among the crypto holdings (-31.8% over 180 days), a merely neutral technical score (19.1), and a 0.77 correlation to BTC that limits its diversification value. TRX, by contrast, is the only asset in the whole list still positive over 90 days (+9.7%) and shows the mildest 180-day decline among cryptos (-12.5%), with a much lower 0.46 correlation to BTC. This reallocation trims three-quarters of the BNB position and redirects the proceeds mostly into USDC and partly into TRX, without touching BTC, which keeps the best technical score (32.8) among held assets and remains the portfolio's crypto anchor.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Best technical score among held assets (32.8, ACHAT) and a comparatively milder 180-day decline (-36.9%) than BNB; kept unchanged as the portfolio's crypto anchor.
- ETH — Not currently held; 180-day drift (-49.5%) is markedly worse than TRX or BTC, so no entry is proposed with the funds freed from this reallocation.
- SOL — Not currently held; despite an ACHAT technical score, the 180-day drift of -61.8% is among the weakest in the list.
- BNB — Weakest 180-day performance among held cryptos (-31.8%) with a neutral technical score (19.1) and a 0.77 correlation to BTC that limits diversification; three-quarters of the position is redirected to USDC and TRX.
- XRP — Not currently held; 180-day drift of -50.6% and 0.87 correlation to BTC would add limited diversification if introduced.
- DOGE — Not currently held; strong short-term score (55.6, ACHAT_FORT) is offset by the steepest 180-day decline in the list (-64.0%), which is not consistent with the multi-month view retained here.
- ADA — Not currently held; 180-day drift of -68.7% is among the weakest, so no allocation is proposed.
- TRX — Only asset still positive over 90 days (+9.7%) and mildest 180-day decline among cryptos (-12.5%), with a lower 0.46 correlation to BTC; roughly 40% of the BNB sale proceeds (about 401 USDT) is redirected here.
- AVAX — Not currently held; 180-day drift of -71.0% is the weakest in the entire list, so it is excluded from this reallocation.
- LINK — Not currently held; 180-day drift of -60.2% remains well below TRX's relative resilience.
- DOT — Not currently held; negative technical score (-2.9) combined with a -64.3% 180-day drift argues against introducing it here.
- LTC — Not currently held; despite a strong short-term score (50.3, ACHAT_FORT), the -50.9% 180-day drift is inconsistent with the longer-horizon focus of this reallocation.
- USDC — Best 180-day capital preservation in the whole list (~0% drift) and a -0.21 correlation to BTC, offering genuine diversification; about 60% of the BNB sale proceeds (roughly 602 USDT) is added here, raising its weight to about 54.8%.
March 2, 2026 — 9,019.96 USDT
Partial rotation from idle USDC into BTC, BNB and existing TRX
USDC 50.0%
BTC 20.0%
TRX 15.9%
BNB 14.1%
The portfolio is currently 84% USDC and 16% TRX, with eleven crypto lines at zero exposure despite a sharp short-term reversal across the sector (Iran-crisis-driven risk-off flows into crypto, strong buy scores on BTC, ETH, SOL and others). Because the multi-month table shows most altcoins down 50-67% over 180 days and highly correlated to BTC, chasing the short-term signal broadly would add risk without real diversification. Instead, part of the USDC cushion is redeployed into BTC (best short-term score and least-bad 180-day drift among volatile assets) and BNB (third-best 180-day resilience with a below-threshold correlation to BTC, offering some genuine diversification), while TRX is kept unchanged given its comparatively strong multi-month behavior. Half the portfolio remains in USDC, preserving most of the defensive posture the current allocation already reflects.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Highest short-term score (58.7, ACHAT_FORT) and the least-bad 180-day drift (-38.4%) among volatile assets; funded from the USDC reserve to introduce measured risk-on exposure.
- ETH — Correlation to BTC of 0.88 (above the 0.80 threshold) and a steep 180-day drop (-54.4%) mean it would largely duplicate BTC risk without adding diversification.
- SOL — Correlation of 0.86 to BTC and 180-day drift of -58.9% offer limited independent value despite the strong short-term score.
- BNB — Third-best 180-day resilience (-25.4%) among the tracked assets and a below-threshold correlation to BTC (0.77), giving it a plausible diversification role.
- XRP — Correlation of 0.88 to BTC and a 180-day loss of -51.1% argue against adding a position that would move largely in step with BTC.
- DOGE — Weakest short-term score among the group (26.3) combined with a 180-day drift of -57.5% provide no clear case for allocation.
- ADA — Worst 180-day performer of the set (-66.9%) with a correlation of 0.83 to BTC; the long-term data does not support adding exposure here.
- TRX — Second-best 180-day resilience (-16.9%) and the lowest correlation to BTC in the table (0.50); the existing position is kept unchanged.
- AVAX — Despite a correlation of 0.77 below the diversification threshold, its 180-day drift (-63.6%) is among the weakest, offering no compelling entry point.
- LINK — Correlation of 0.82 to BTC and a 180-day loss of -62.2% make this line redundant with a BTC position without added resilience.
- DOT — Neutral short-term score (9) alongside a 180-day drift of -61.0% give no basis for reallocating into this line.
- LTC — A relatively low correlation to BTC (0.74) is offset by a still-weak 180-day drift (-51.7%), which does not compare favorably to BNB or TRX.
- USDC — Reduced from 84.1% to roughly 50% of the portfolio, funding the new BTC and BNB positions while keeping half the portfolio in the asset that showed the strongest 180-day stability (+0.1%).
February 15, 2026 — 9,017.27 USDT
Reducing BTC and BNB exposure toward USDC given broad sell signals
USDC 84.3%
TRX 15.7%
BTC and BNB both carry VENTE_FORTE technical scores (-56 and -57) alongside sustained multi-month declines, occurring during a market-wide red session referenced in the news feed. TRX stands out as the only risk asset with a NEUTRE score and comparatively mild drift, while USDC has been flat and negatively correlated to BTC over 180 days. This reallocation moves the proceeds from selling BTC and BNB into USDC, raising the cash-like buffer from 59.6% to about 84% of the portfolio while leaving TRX untouched. The intent is to reduce exposure to the two lines showing the clearest combination of weak short-term signal and weak long-term trend, not to call a bottom or a rebound.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Score technique -56 (VENTE_FORTE) et dérive -39,0% sur 180 jours, dans un contexte d'actualités négatives datées du 13 et 15 février; la position de 840,06 USDT est soldée vers USDC.
- ETH — Ligne déjà à zéro; le score -58,3 (VENTE_FORTE) et la dérive -51,7% sur 180 jours ne justifient pas une entrée.
- SOL — Ligne déjà à zéro; score -56,4 (VENTE_FORTE) et dérive -51,1% sur 180 jours, aucune raison d'y entrer.
- BNB — Score technique -57 (VENTE_FORTE), dérive -34,4%/-32,2% sur 30/90 jours et corrélation de 0,76 à BTC; la position de 1 379,77 USDT est soldée vers USDC.
- XRP — Ligne déjà à zéro; corrélation de 0,86 à BTC limite l'intérêt diversifiant même en cas d'entrée.
- DOGE — Ligne déjà à zéro; score -27,8 (VENTE) et dérive -51,0% sur 180 jours.
- ADA — Ligne déjà à zéro; pire performeur du tableau sur 180 jours (-66,7%), aucune raison d'y entrer.
- TRX — Score technique -6 (NEUTRE) et dérive limitée (-3,9% sur 90 jours, -19,3% sur 180 jours), la plus résiliente des lignes détenues, avec une corrélation modérée à BTC (0,51).
- AVAX — Ligne déjà à zéro; score -26,4 (VENTE) et dérive -58,5% sur 180 jours.
- LINK — Ligne déjà à zéro; score -56,6 (VENTE_FORTE) et dérive -62,7% sur 180 jours.
- DOT — Ligne déjà à zéro; pire dérive à 90 jours du tableau (-49,1%).
- LTC — Ligne déjà à zéro; score -25,5 (VENTE) et dérive -51,1% sur 180 jours.
- USDC — Réception des 2 219,83 USDT issus de la vente de BTC et BNB; USDC a affiché une dérive de 0,0% sur 180 jours et une corrélation négative (-0,22) à BTC, ce qui en fait le meilleur amortisseur disponible dans ce contexte de marché baissier généralisé.
January 31, 2026 — 9,514.81 USDT
Trim Bitcoin exposure into cash amid broad sell signals
USDC 56.6%
BNB 18.2%
TRX 15.2%
BTC 10.0%
The weighted score of -21.3 (SELL) reflects a market-wide short-term downturn, with Bitcoin also carrying two clearly negative news items and the worst 180-day drift (-31.6%) among the three crypto lines actually held. This proposal cuts the Bitcoin position roughly in half and redirects the proceeds into USDC, raising the stable-value buffer from 43.5% to about 56.6% of the portfolio. BNB and TRX are left unchanged: over 180 days BNB is the only line with a positive drift (+1.7%) and TRX is the second-best performer (-13.9%), and both show lower correlation to Bitcoin than most other majors. The result is a portfolio that keeps the two relatively more resilient crypto lines while reducing the weight of the line that has both underperformed and attracted the most negative headline flow.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — BTC shows the weakest 180-day drift among held assets (-31.6%) plus two negative news items in the last two days; cutting the position roughly in half reduces exposure to its full correlation with itself while funding a larger cash buffer.
- ETH — No current position; short-term score is -30 (SELL) and 180-day drift is -34.1%, with correlation to BTC at 0.83, offering little diversification if entered now.
- SOL — No current position; 180-day drift of -37.7% and correlation to BTC of 0.82 give no clear diversification case for opening a line.
- BNB — BNB is the only asset in the table with a positive 180-day drift (+1.7%) and shows a moderate 0.73 correlation to BTC, supporting keeping the position unchanged despite the current short-term SELL score.
- XRP — No current position; strong sell technical score (-58.1) and a steep 180-day drift of -46.4% argue against initiating exposure.
- DOGE — No current position; 180-day drift of -50.4% offers no basis for entry under a de-risking approach.
- ADA — No current position; ADA shows the weakest 180-day drift of the whole table (-61.1%), reinforcing the choice not to open a line here.
- TRX — TRX is the second-best 180-day performer among held assets (-13.9%) and has the lowest correlation to BTC in the table (0.47), which supports keeping the position unchanged despite the short-term VENTE_FORTE score.
- AVAX — No current position; 180-day drift of -56.2% and no diversification data support avoiding entry.
- LINK — No current position; 180-day drift of -41.6% and correlation of 0.77 to BTC do not present a compelling entry case.
- DOT — No current position; among the worst long-term performers (-58.4% over 180 days) with a strong sell technical score.
- LTC — No current position; 180-day drift of -50.9% gives no basis for opening a line in this de-risking context.
- USDC — Proceeds from the Bitcoin reduction raise the stable-value buffer from 43.5% to roughly 56.6%, consistent with the broadly bearish weighted score (-21.3) and USDC's near-zero, slightly negative correlation to BTC.
January 16, 2026 — 10,496.52 USDT
Rebalancing toward BNB and TRX, trimming XRP
USDC 39.4%
BTC 25.6%
BNB 20.0%
TRX 15.0%
The current portfolio holds Bitcoin at 25.6%, USDC at 38% as a stable buffer, and three altcoins (BNB, XRP, TRX) making up the rest. Looking at the multi-month behavior table rather than the short eight-day technical score, BNB has held up best over 180 days (+24%) while also showing a lower correlation to Bitcoin (0.71) than most other majors, and TRX has stayed nearly flat over both 90 and 180 days with the lowest correlation to Bitcoin in the table (0.48). XRP, by contrast, shows the weakest recent technical reading among held assets, a -40.1% 180-day drift, and a correlation to Bitcoin (0.78) that limits its diversification value. This reallocation trims XRP entirely and redirects the freed capital into BNB and TRX, leaving Bitcoin's weight untouched as the portfolio's core reference position, with a small residual added back to the USDC buffer.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Kept at its current size (~25.6% of the portfolio) as the portfolio's core reference asset; short-term technical reading is ACHAT but its correlation of 1.00 to itself makes it the benchmark against which diversification of other lines is measured.
- ETH — No position held; correlation to BTC (0.81) is above the diversification threshold and 180-day drift remains negative (-12.3%), so no capital is directed here.
- SOL — No position held; despite an ACHAT technical score, correlation to BTC (0.80) sits at the diversification threshold and the 180-day drift is markedly negative (-20.1%).
- BNB — Best 180-day performer in the table (+24%) with a comparatively lower correlation to Bitcoin (0.71) and an ACHAT technical score (36.6); weight increased from 15.5% to about 20% using proceeds from the XRP sale.
- XRP — Weak technical reading (-4.5), the poorest 180-day drift among held assets (-40.1%), a correlation to Bitcoin (0.78) that limits diversification value, and mixed recent news (crypto bill delay) support fully exiting this position.
- DOGE — No position held; negative technical score and a steep 180-day drift (-49.5%) keep it outside the allocation.
- ADA — No position held; this is the weakest 180-day performer in the table (-53.9%) combined with a high correlation to Bitcoin (0.81), offering little diversification benefit.
- TRX — Strongest technical score in the portfolio (57.3, ACHAT_FORT), near-flat 90- and 180-day drifts, and the lowest correlation to Bitcoin in the table (0.48); weight increased from 10.3% to about 15% funded by the XRP sale.
- AVAX — No position held; steep 180-day decline (-45.7%) and no current allocation of freed capital toward it.
- LINK — No position held; despite an ACHAT score, its correlation to BTC (0.77) and negative 180-day drift (-28.7%) placed it below BNB and TRX in priority for the limited capital freed by the XRP sale.
- DOT — No position held; 180-day drift is sharply negative (-52.7%) with a negative short-term score.
- LTC — No position held; 180-day drift remains deeply negative (-35.5%) despite a recent 24h uptick.
- USDC — Buffer increased slightly (from 38% to about 39.4%) using the residual left over after funding the BNB and TRX purchases, maintaining a stabilizing allocation given a NEUTRE weighted score and mixed news flow around Bitcoin.
January 1, 2026 — 9,988.00 USDT
Deploying idle USDC into a diversified core-plus-satellite crypto position
USDC 40.0%
BTC 25.0%
BNB 15.0%
TRX 10.0%
XRP 10.0%
The portfolio currently sits entirely in USDC, meaning it carries no exposure to the crypto market at all despite several assets showing ACHAT or ACHAT_FORT short-term signals and a generally constructive news flow around Bitcoin. This proposal moves 60% of the value into four lines while keeping 40% in USDC as a stability anchor, given USDC's near-zero correlation to BTC (-0.12) and its stable 180-day behavior. Within the crypto sleeve, Bitcoin receives the largest single allocation given its dual positive-sentiment news items and ACHAT score; BNB is added for its comparatively resilient 180-day track record and ACHAT_FORT signal; TRX is included specifically for its low correlation to BTC (0.51), the lowest among all listed alts, offering the most genuine diversification; XRP is added in smaller size on the strength of its ACHAT_FORT score despite a weaker 180-day drift. Assets with correlation above 0.80 to BTC (ETH, SOL, ADA) are left out, since combining them with a BTC position would add line count without meaningfully reducing risk.
Line-by-line reasoning
- BTC — Allocated ~2,500 USDT (25% of the portfolio) reflecting its ACHAT score, positive news tonality, and role as the correlation benchmark for the rest of the crypto sleeve.
- ETH — Left unallocated: correlation to BTC of 0.81 exceeds the 0.80 threshold, so adding it alongside BTC would not meaningfully diversify the position.
- SOL — Correlation to BTC of 0.80 and a weak 90-day drift of -45.5% argue against inclusion in this reallocation.
- BNB — Allocated ~1,500 USDT (15%): best 180-day resistance among all listed assets (+31.7%) and an ACHAT_FORT score, with a moderate 0.70 correlation to BTC.
- XRP — Allocated ~1,000 USDT (10%) on the strength of the highest technical score in the set (58.4, ACHAT_FORT), despite a weaker 180-day drift of -15.2%.
- DOGE — Weak long-term behavior (-22.8% over 180 days, -50.9% over 90 days) does not support inclusion despite the recent 24h spike.
- ADA — Worst-in-class 90-day (-58.8%) and 180-day (-38.1%) drifts combined with a 0.81 correlation to BTC make it a weak diversification candidate.
- TRX — Allocated ~1,000 USDT (10%): lowest correlation to BTC among all listed assets (0.51) and one of only two lines with positive 180-day drift (+1.4%).
- AVAX — Severe 90-day drawdown (-56.6%) and 180-day decline (-24.2%) outweigh the neutral short-term score.
- LINK — Weak long-term drift (-44.0% over 90 days) and neutral technical score do not justify inclusion in this reallocation.
- DOT — Worst 180-day performer in the set (-40.4%) and a neutral technical score argue for continued exclusion.
- LTC — Neutral technical score and a persistently negative long-term drift (-33.7% over 90 days) do not support an allocation.
- USDC — Reduced from 100% to roughly 40% of the portfolio (about 4,000 USDT) to fund the crypto allocations while retaining a stability anchor with near-zero correlation to BTC (-0.12).
The rules, fixed before the first run
- Capital — 10,000 USDT, never topped up, starting fully in stable value so the model is free to deploy or not.
- Cadence — one decision every 15 calendar days, no exceptions, each inheriting the previous allocation.
- Cut-off — hourly candles stopped at the decision date, long-view and news bounded the same way, and an explicit "as of" notice at the head of the context.
- News — articles published in the three days before each decision. The retrospective corpus is very uneven: Bitcoin has over a thousand articles across the period, Ethereum two hundred, most other assets almost none. Press only really informs the first few lines.
- Fees — 0.1% of the amount traded, deducted. Every pair is quoted in USDT, so moving from one asset to another is two trades.
- Arithmetic — the model decides an allocation, the server rescales it so the composition is worth exactly the fund. Any gap is recorded above rather than hidden.
- Failure — a failed call keeps the previous allocation and says so. A missing decision is never replaced by an invented one.
Changing any of these opens a new campaign rather than altering this one, so a correction can never quietly rewrite a published history. Past behaviour of a rule says nothing about its future behaviour, and none of this is advice about anyone's situation.